Complete and Utter Zebu

FORECASTERS AIM FOR CONSISTENCY. BUT THE MET OFFICE’S CONSISTENCY IS IN GETTING ITS PREDICTIONS WRONG
Forecasting is an inexact science, no matter what the field. It’s said, for instance, that economists have successfully predicted 14 of the last five recessions. Yet Britain’s Met Office has achieved an extraordinary consistency in its long-range forecasts – by getting [...]

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2009 is set to be the fifth hottest “since records began”, according to the Met Office. Even though there are still five weeks to go, that sounds pretty scary. Surprising, even, given the ridicule directed at the Met Office for forecasting in April that we were set for “a barbecue summer”. We certainly didn’t get [...]

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